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“Telecommuting”, “quaranteams”, “doomscrolling”, “upperwear” and curating one’s Zoom background have all become a part of our new remote working reality. If we were unnerved by the way digital technology was transforming our world before the pandemic, Covid-19 has only made the speed of change even faster,

It is estimated that in the next five years close to 85 million jobs may be displaced by algorithms, artificial intelligence and robotics.

According to the World Economic Forum Jobs Report 2020, “automation, in tandem with the COVID-19 recession, is creating a ‘double-disruption’ scenario for workers. Technological adoption by companies will transform tasks, jobs and skills by 2025. Time spent on current tasks at work by humans and machines will become equal.”

The report also estimate that 97 million new roles may emerge as the new division of labour between humans, machines and algorithms emerges.

Our presenters Jonathan Charles and Kerrie Law discuss what the Covid-19 transformation means to the future of work in the latest episode of our podcast Pocket Dilemmas. They are joined by: 

Jason Furman, the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University. He is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics,

Beata Javorcik, our Chief Economist and Professor of Economics, University of Oxford.

Is the future of work already here? What is a bigger threat to our future: Covid-19 or robots? All of this and more in our latest podcast.

Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes, email us at dilemmas@ebrd.com, or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDdilemmas

You can rate, review and subscribe to Pocket Dilemma on ITunes, Spotify and Soundcloud, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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With the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP 26) scheduled for  November, governments are under growing pressure to meet their national commitments to decarbonise.

 

Green transition at scale will require a lot of collaboration and, in a global economy still in the throes of the coronavirus pandemic, finance will have a key role to play in ‘building back better’ and ‘building back greener’.

 

For instance, one proposal as to how to fund a green recovery from Covid-19 is through carbon taxation. It can change the status quo by encouraging investments in innovation and climate friendly technologies. But without inclusive policies addressing existing inequalities it risks making the poor poorer.

 

The Governor of the Banque de France, François Villeroy de Galhau, recently called for a decarbonisation of trillions of euros worth of corporate bonds.

 

But how realistic it is for already struggling firms and industries to survive new heftier taxes?

 

This and many other questions are discussed in our latest episode of Pocket Dilemmas podcast, where Kerrie Law and Jonathan Charles are joined by:

 

* EBRD’s Director of Research Ralph de Haas

* Associate Professor of Economics at Imperial College London, Ralf Martin

 

Can finance reduce pollution during the Covid-19 crisis? Listen to our latest episode.

 

Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes, email us at dilemmas@ebrd.com, or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDdilemmas

You can rate, review and subscribe to Pocket Dilemma on ITunes, Spotify and Soundcloud, or wherever you get your podcasts.

 

 

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On the 15April 1991, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development opened its doors for business for the first time.

It was conceived by its founders as ‘a new and unique structure of co‑operation’ for a continent still recovering from the shock of the collapse of communism.

Its mission then, as now, was to further progress towards market-oriented economies and promote private and entrepreneurial initiative.

So, at the age of 30, how is the EBRD doing? What are the challenges for its future? What has the EBRD taught some of its former staff?

This special discussion brought together four EBRD Chief Economists, past and present, who shared their insights into the Bank and its influence on the countries where it works, global development and the world of international financial institutions.

The inaugural Chief Economist of Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, Erik Berglof, talked about the technical banking skills which are unique to the EBRD as well as its knowledge of its regions. These are  particularly important  as the Bank helps them overcome the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.

“Technical skills, structuring projects, infrastructure or financial… All those skills we assume in the models, but when you live with them on a daily basis…, it is both humbling and reassuring,” he said.

“At this point most economies are still on life support. Nobody knows what the real state of the economy is… Then we will see the first firms fighting for survival. And the true test will be: will the firms close to the governing elites be bailed out?,” said the current EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik in a stark warning of the challenges ahead.

Lord Stern, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government and Chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment stressed some positives that the coronavirus pandemic has brought about, such as people being less averse to change and a unified willingness to build back better.

Sergei Guriev, now Professor of Economics at Science Po  in Paris, highlighted the importance of digitalisation for inclusive recovery, especially when some of the EBRD regions enjoy only partial internet coverage.

The discussion was joined by EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso and chaired by EBRD Communications Managing Director Jonathan Charles.

 Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDEconTalks.

 

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The Multilateral development banks were set up after the Second World War to be the original impact investors, fighting poverty, inequality or more currently climate change. 

 “To demonstrate our impact is crucial at a time where multilateralism is often challenged, when there is a tendency to think that, we are more effective when we work at a country level than at the global level. And I think that the ability to show that and acting in this mutual framework is helpful to deliver some impacts on values because we are building on a very good experience,” said EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso during the opening of the digital discussion.

Now more than ever, the MDBs have a very important role to play. The Covid-19 recovery will not be easy. The climate emergency is here. Furthermore, the national governments are dealing with growing mountains of debt.

 

How can we ensure that multilateral lending is effective to help the world emerge from this crisis? What is “iwashing” and the difficulty of attribution were all discussed by:

Dean Karlan is the Frederic Esser Nemmers Distinguished Professor of Economics and Finance at Northwestern University and President and Founder of Innovations for Poverty Action

Pavan Sukhdev is an environmental economist, banker, former Special Adviser and Head of UNEP's Green Economy Initiative, currently CEO of GIST Advisory, and President of WWF International;

Beata Javorcik- EBRD’s Chief Economist and Professor of Economics at Oxford University.

The discussion was chaired by EBRD Communications Managing Director Jonathan Charles.

 Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDEconTalks.

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Inequality is emerging as the “biggest policy challenge” during and after the Covid-19 pandemic, with the World Bank estimating that extreme global poverty is to rise for the first time in over 20 years. 

 

“The coronavirus pandemic is possibly the first so-called ‘global event’”, said Professor Branko Milanovic in the latest EBRD Economics Talk.

 

 Sir Angus Deaton, Nobel Prize laureate, also took part in the discussion on the nature of inequality and how it will be aggravated by the pandemic.

 

EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik sounded the alarm about coronavirus’s impact on emerging markets across the EBRD regions.

 

What’s next? How can our societies be made more equal? What are the roles of the state and the private sector in combatting inequality?

Professor Angus Deaton is a Nobel Prize laureate in Economics and Senior Scholar at the School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University.  His latest book “Deaths of Despair” is co-written with Anne Case and is a ground-breaking account of how the flaws in capitalism are fatal for America’s working class.

Professor Branko Milanovic is a Presidential Professor at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York and a senior fellow at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality.

Beata Javorcik is the EBRD Chief Economist and Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford.

The discussion was joined by EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso and chaired by EBRD Communications Managing Director Jonathan Charles.

 Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDEconTalks

 

In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the key role of the state amidst managing public health and economic disaster. However, if the role of state is growing, is it actually a good thing? These are just a few of the questions discussed in this special live launch of 2020-21 Transition Report: The State Strike Back.

EBRD's Anthony Williams was join by a great line up of guests:

Mariana Mazzucato is Professor in the Economics of Innovation and Public Value at University College London (UCL) where she is Founding Director of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP).

Dani Rodrik is the Ford Foundation Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government.

A special video message from Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, University Professor at Columbia University.

EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik and the new EBRD president Odile Renaud-Basso.

Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDEconTalks

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It’s been almost a year since reports of a new strain of coronavirus first emerged. Even back then the IMF was sounding the alarm about the high and rising levels of debt in developing economies.

 

Today, after lockdowns and severe economic contractions, debt is growing almost as fast as the coronavirus pandemic is spreading.

 

“It’s not the moment to be timid on debt crisis resolution,’ says the World Bank’s Chief Economist, Carmen Reinhart.

 

“Proposals need to be bold in terms of delivering debt reduction for the debtors. Because, if not, … risks of the lost decade are very big.”

 

What’s next? How can we manage the debt crisis which appears to be fast approaching?

 

Listen to Carmen Reinhart, Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times and Beata Javorcik, EBRD Chief Economist discussing the challenges ahead. The discussion was moderated by the EBRD’s Head of External Communications, Anthony Williams.

 

Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDEconTalks

 

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The full cost of the coronavirus pandemic is still unknown. But state spending has skyrocketed as governments try to protect whole sectors and industries which were put into induced comas this spring. 

How will we pay our debts incurred during this crisis? What will be the price of recovery?

In this coronavirus special, EBRD Managing Director of Communications, Jonathan Charles and EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik were joined by:

Willem H. Buiter, the former Citibank Chief Economist and Member of the Monetary Policy committee of the Bank of England (and former EBRD Chief Economist as well). He was awarded the CBE in 2000;

 

Martin Wolf, Chief economics commentator at the Financial Times;

Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDEconTalks

The coronavirus pandemic has locked populations inside their houses and put millions under the spotlight of a new state-controlled panopticon, watching us and our movements in the name of public safety.

Our Pocket Dilemma podcast presenters, Jonathan Charles and Kerrie Law, were joined on Zoom by:

• Peter Pomerantsev-  Senior Fellow, LSE. Author: This is Not Propaganda, Nothing is True and Everything is Possible
• Samuel Woolley- Professor, University of Texas at Austin, Founding Director, Digital Intelligence Lab and the author of “The Reality Game: How the Next Wave of Technology Will Break the Truth”

They discussed the ethical aspects of technology, including transparency, use of data and trust. Is fact-checking effective? What regulations are necessary to control private sector tech companies?

Peter Pomerantsev stressed that importance lies in trust:

“There is something bigger at stake here that relates to trust and transparency. We still live in the internet that is essentially we don’t really see how materials produced and created. I compare it old school restaurants where you couldn’t see into the kitchen.”

Samuel Woolley voiced a word of warning on the use of AI:

“Artificial intelligence and machine learning get used for scale. They can be used to massively amplify a particular point of view or to suppress another point of view and that’s kind of frightening.”

As Peter Pomerantsev observed:

“We live in this weird paradox where there is more information than ever before but actually much less information about what stands behind this information.”

Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes, email us at dilemmas@ebrd.com, or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDdilemmas

You can rate, review and subscribe to Pocket Dilemma on ITunes, Spotify and Soundcloud, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Rate and review our Coronavirus and Capitalism special podcast episode

In only a few months, the coronavirus pandemic has seriously shifted the balance of power between the state and the private sector. How is this impacting our politics and economies? 

This Pocket Dilemmas podcast special on capitalism in the post-Covid-19 era was organised by the EBRD and the Athens Democracy Forum (in association with The New York Times).

Joseph Stiglitz, Economist and Professor, Columbia University, Beata Javorcik, EBRD Chief Economist, and Roger Cohen, the Athens Democracy Forum Host and Advisory Board member and New York Times Op-Ed columnist, discussed how and whether capitalism will survive the coronavirus pandemic.

The speakers highlighted the challenges that the capitalist societies will have to address going forward.

“We have greater inequalities, not only in income and wealth, but also huge inequalities in health. This virus is not an ‘equal opportunities’ virus; it goes after people with pre-existing conditions. So the inequalities in our system have been very strongly manifested,” Joseph Stiglitz said. “In a way, the people who are put most at risk are the ones that we’re paying the least too.”

Beata Javorcik highlighted that the Covid-19 pandemic has revealed a “generational conflict”. “The face of capitalism will change depending on what extent the younger generation will be modelised through the pandemic,” she said. 

“We’ve seen in this crisis that capitalism is not working. We knew it before, it’s not working and it’s increasing inequality in our societies to a degree that is simply becoming intolerable,” Roger Cohen commented. “Capitalism at its current form is also impacting the environment”.

This special episode was presented by Jonathan Charles, EBRD Managing Director for Communications, and it was livestreamed on Facebook.

The Future of Capitalism will be one of the discussion themes at the 2020 Athens Democracy Forum, held in Athens and live-streamed from 30 September to 2 October.

The Forum is convened annually by the Democracy and Culture Foundation in partnership with The New York Times, engaging policymakers, politicians and diplomats; corporate (CSR) executives; notable academics and students; NGO, foundation and think tank leaders; youth activists; and media experts/practitioners.

Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD @ForumAthens  #PocketDilemmas